By Barry Eichengreen
An research of the connections among capital flows and fiscal crises in addition to among capital flows and financial development.
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Extra info for Capital Flows and Crises
Wartime experience had shown that ﬁscal policy could be directed toward new goals, suggesting that the budget might no longer be subordinated to maintenance of the currency peg. Theories had been developed linking monetary policy to the state of the economy. For these reasons and others, capital no longer ﬂowed in stabilizing directions in the event of shocks. Instead, deteriorating economic and ﬁnancial conditions might only heighten doubts about whether governments were prepared to stay the course.
The exports to which it gave rise found a ready market in the creditor countries, in turn underpinning ﬁnancial stability in the borrowing regions. These relationships were complementary at high as well as low frequencies. Thus, when economic conditions deteriorated in Britain, investment was redeployed from home to overseas markets (Cairncross 1953). British imports might decline, worsening conditions in the periphery, but when they did, British capital exports would rise, exercising an offsetting effect.
In the event, new money from the banks came to only two-thirds of the $20 billion target. 52 By 1987, there were growing worries that the banks would no longer play. Having raised capital and securitized their claims (enabling them to employ debt-equity conversions and debt buybacks to spin off unwanted positions), they had reduced their exposure as a share of capital to half of 1982 levels. This dampened the banks’ enthusiasm for the Baker Plan. It weakened their incentive to provide new money in order to avert the suspension of debt-servicing payments, because they were now in a better position to withstand the damage.