By Carlo A. Favero
Over the last ten years, fiscal volatility has come into its personal after being taken care of for many years as a secondary phenomenon in company cycle literature. This evolution has been pushed by means of the popularity of the everlasting unwanted effects of volatility on long-run progress and inequality, specifically in terrible nations. After featuring simple positive factors of volatility, this quantity investigates commodity expense volatility as an absorber and amplifier of shocks. the gathering then examines macroeconomic crises, that are pushed by means of an identical phenomena that make volatility tricky to regard successfully
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Extra resources for Applied macroeconometrics
Very often, we use them without even thinking about it. This book is intended for the aware or enlightened practitioner, for anyone who uses decision or evaluation modelsfor research or for applications-and is willing t o question his practice, t o have a deeper understanding of what he does. We have tried t o keep mathematics at a minimum, so that, hopefully, most of the material will be accessible to the not mathematically-inclined readers. 5. WHO ARE THE AUTHORS? 17 such as differential equations, abstract algebra or calculus and we do not prove the theorems we present.
Robust conclusions. The chapter concludes with a more general perspective on robustness, an important emerging theme in the field of decision aiding. Indeed, all scientists who have dealt with real decision problems know that the numerical values used in their models are often questionable. This is the case for information describing the decision situation, traditionally called the "data". They are often values built by the analyst according t o the model he wants to use; they result from assumptions about the context of the problem, from estimations of badly known or random values, from the forecasting of future events.
The main idea is t o enable the analyst to answer questions of the type: 0 who has a problem? 0 why is this a problem? CHAPTER 2. PROBLEM FORMULATION AND STRUCTURING 36 0 who decides on this problem (who is responsible)? 0 who pays for the job? what is really important for the client? how is the client committed in this situation? Such an analysis might also be useful for the client since it could help him to better situate himself with respect to the decision process for which he asked the analyst's advice.