Download An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to by Nicos Christodoulakis PDF

By Nicos Christodoulakis

This ebook presents a quantitative framework for the research of clash dynamics and for estimating the industrial expenses linked to civil wars. the writer develops converted Lotka-Volterra equations to version clash dynamics, to yield lifelike representations of conflict tactics, and to permit us to evaluate lengthy clash traps. the commercial expenditures of civil wars are evaluated with assistance from substitute equipment: to start with, the writer employs a creation functionality to figure out how the destruction of human and actual capital shares undermines financial progress within the medium time period. Secondly, he develops a man-made keep an eye on method, the place the fee is acquired because the divergence of exact monetary job from a hypothetical direction within the absence of civil warfare. the variation among the 2 methods supplies a sign of the adversarial externalities impinging upon the economic climate within the kind of institutional destruction. by utilizing precise time-series concerning conflict casualties, neighborhood socio-economic signs, and capital inventory destruction through the Greek Civil conflict (1946-1949), a full-scale software of the above framework is gifted and discussed.

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Extra resources for An Economic Analysis of Conflicts: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

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6 Criticism to the Collier-Hoeffler Model A number of limitations are inherent in the Collier-Hoeffler model and are discussed below. A key feature is that the cost incurred by each side is only caused by income foregone by entering the conflict. The implication of such a cost function is that the aggressor, in case of failing to win, suffers no more for taking part in the insurgence. This is in stark contrast with civil war realities, by omitting the examination of the consequences that persecutions may have on the occurrence and outcome of a conflict.

14With this caveat in mind, we examine whether power-law models are relevant for understanding the dynamics of the Greek conflict. 2. Despite the relatively small number of observations, all estimates are statistically significant. 62 for deaths and casualties respectively, much lower than the presumed global constant. These figures suggest that the probability of casualties exceeding a certain level is high or, in other words, that the conflict is likely to escalate even further. 01 for deaths and casualties respectively, closer to the presumed global constant.

1 Conflict Motivation In the academic literature on civil wars two alternative theories compete for explaining their occurrence, participation rate, and severity: the opportunity-cost model and the theory of accumulated grievances. Despite the arguments for and against each one, the two approaches have, in fact, more similarities than differences when describing a process of organized conflict, for two reasons: First, because a conflict is characterized as a civil war only if it is extensive, recurrent and identified with a central cause.

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